GPDRR2022- Co-Chairs’ Summary: Bali Agenda for Resilience
The seventh session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction took place from 25 to 27 May 2022 in Bali, Indonesia. It was co-chaired by H.E. Prof. Muhadjir Effendy, Coordinating Minister for Human Development and Cultural Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia, and Ms. Mami Mizutori, Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction. Organized in a hybrid format, the Global Platform had over 4000 participants from a total of 185 countries.

Investing in resilient infrastructure for a better future
Day-to-day life depends on infrastructure and its services. This includes supply chains, electricity, water and sanitation, and information networks. But in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and increasingly extreme weather events, these systems are under increasing threat. In December 2020, Cyclone Yasa, a single event, caused around USD 1.4 billion in damage to health facilities, homes, schools, and other critical infrastructure in the Pacific island nation of Fiji. Beyond the economic toll, there was immeasurable disruption to people’s lives due to downed systems, extending the duration of the disaster beyond the passing of the cyclone.

The climate Risk and Early Warning Systems initiative brings a message of hope
In a year overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic and its socio-economic fallout, 2021 nevertheless saw progress towards strengthening early warning services and building resilience to extreme weather and climate change impacts in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries. This is one of the critical messages of the 2021 Annual Report of the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems Initiative (CREWS). This unique climate action programme helps save lives, livelihoods and assets in the world’s most vulnerable countries.

Building the evidence for more effective disaster risk reduction
After a long hiatus due to the COVID crisis, governments have come together in Bali last week to discuss progress on implementing the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Organised by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and hosted by the Government of Indonesia, the seventh session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction comes at a crucial time. While countries struggle to address the compounded threats of food, fuel and financial insecurity amid a pandemic, many must also still contend with the threat of natural hazards and the terrible costs they exact.

A new study of the relationship between climate change and socio-economic tipping points
Climate change can cause sudden socio-economic tipping points, such as large-scale bankruptcies of low-lying ski resorts, the collapse of house prices due to sea-level rise, or the extensive disruption of the road network due to flooding. Kees van Ginkel (Deltares) spent four years researching tipping points of this kind. He will present the results, which have been published in various journals, at a scientific conference in Vienna (EGU) this week.

Policy Brief: Harnessing data to accelerate the transition from disaster response to recovery
The CODATA Task Group on FAIR Data for Disaster Risk Research has produced a Policy Brief as input to the seventh session of the Global Platform (GP2022), organised by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) from 23 to 28 May 2022, in Bali, Indonesia. This policy brief was published alongside two ISC policy briefs on the same occasion.

Data For Disaster Risk Reduction podcast series –  Data-Driven Dynamics for Resilience Podcast
Data for Disaster Risk Reduction

Principles for resilient infrastructure
The Principles for Resilient Infrastructure describe a set of principles, key actions, and guidelines to create national scale net resilience gain and improve the continuity of critical services such as energy, transport, water, wastewater, waste, and digital communications, which enable health, education, etc. to function effectively.

Technical Guidance on Comprehensive Risk Assessment and Planning in the Context of Climate Change
Climate change is increasing the magnitude, frequency, duration and severity of climate-related hazards, leading to complex and cascading risks that make people and systems more vulnerable today in years to come. A comprehensive understanding of risks is thus a priority. This document is also a pivotal contribution to the Plan of Action of the Technical Expert Group on Comprehensive Risk Management of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts.

Closing the Gap between Science and Practice at Local Levels to Accelerate Disaster Risk Reduction
This policy brief analyses the existing gap between science and technology (S&T) and its incorporation into disaster risk management at local levels.

The road to COP27: Making Africa’s case in the climate debate
This study explores the potential impacts of compounding risk between natural hazards and infectious disease outbreaks, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) region. Compound risk occurs when two or more shock events overlap, inducing additional pressure on social and physical vulnerabilities. As part of the study, scenarios of a natural hazard occurring during an outbreak are created for each CAREC country.

Projecting the effects of climate change on the informed risk index
This contributing paper presents an extension of the INFORM Risk Index, a global indicator-based disaster risk assessment tool. By using projections of exposure to climate change hazards to provide better insights for policymakers on the threats imposed by climate change and the extent to the amplified risks can be compensated by reduced vulnerability and increased adaptive capacity measures.

Webinar: Inside the NZ Emissions Reduction Plan – June 2
The NZ Emissions Reduction Plan, released on Monday, 16 May contains strategies, policies, and actions to achieve our first emissions budget as required by the Climate Change Response Act 2002. Climate Change Minister Hon James Shaw says that the plan ‘will require nearly every part of Government to act to reduce emissions right across the country.’ It’s being touted as a major step towards taking tangible climate action, requiring big changes. If you’re interested in discussing with us and others what these changes may mean for your organisation and how to best respond: I will be joined by T+T Technical Director – Climate and Resilience James Hughes and Chapman Tripp’s climate regulatory and risk experts Alana Lampitt and Nicola Swan to host an interactive online session on Thursday 2 June to unpack the Emissions Reduction Plan and field any questions on how to tackle emissions reduction.

WorldFAIR – Global cooperation on FAIR data policy and practice – June 20 
The major global scientific and human challenges of the 21st century (including climate change, sustainable development, and disaster risk reduction) can only be addressed through cross-domain research that seeks to understand complex systems through machine-assisted analysis at scale. WorldFAIR project comprises a genuinely global consortium and 11 case studies in a range of research fields.  The objective of each case study is to unpack the research questions, characterise the data requirements and develop an interoperability framework for their discipline or interdisciplinary research area. This is done in cooperation with CODATA and the Research Data Alliance, organisations that have developed recommendations and technical frameworks to assist with interoperability on various levels.

International Data Week 2022 – 20-23rd June 
International Data Week (IDW) is a landmark event organised by the Committee on Data (CODATA) and the World Data System (WDS) of the International Science Council (ISC), and the Research Data Alliance (RDA).
It brings together data scientists, researchers, industry leaders, entrepreneurs, policymakers and data stewards from disciplines across the globe to explore how best to exploit the data revolution to improve science and society through data-driven discovery and innovation.  IDW combines the RDA Plenary Meeting, the biannual meeting of this international membership organisation working to develop and support global infrastructure facilitating data sharing and reuse, and SciDataCon, the scientific conference addressing the frontiers of data in research organised by CODATA and WDS.

Sea levels rising twice as fast as thought in New Zealand
Explosive new data shows the sea level is rising twice as fast as previously thought in some parts of Aotearoa, massively reducing the number of times authorities has to respond. The major new projections show infrastructure and homes in Auckland and Wellington – as well as many other places – risk inundation decades earlier than expected.

Risk Data Hub, a renewed space to support EU countries with disaster prevention and preparedness
More than 2400 disastrous events related to natural hazards have struck Europe in the last 30 years. The Risk Data Hub (RDH) hosts resources to help authorities manage risks and justify financial support requests to cope with these major events. The ultimate goal of this comprehensive hub is to offer data to help improve risk assessments in the stages before, during and after a disaster hits Europe.

Addressing food security and climate change through regenerative agriculture
One of the significant challenges that Bangladesh faces is ensuring food security for a growing population. The most viable and holistic solution to this problem is regenerative agriculture. Regenerative agriculture is a farming system that attempts to conserve soil and contribute to multiple provisioning, regulating and supporting services of the ecosystem and aims to enhance the environmental, social and economic sustainability of food production.

After the relentless rain, South Africa sounds the alarm on the climate crisis
Survivors of South Africa’s devastating floods have described “sheet upon sheet of relentless rain” that washed away entire houses, bridges and roads, killing about 450 people and making thousands homeless. The storm, which delivered close to an entire year’s usual rainfall in 48 hours, took meteorologists by surprise and has been blamed by experts on climate change. The new disaster comes after three tropical cyclones and two tropical storms hit southeast Africa in just six weeks in the first months of this year.

Risk insurance builds climate and disaster resilience in Central America and the Caribbean
Drought-monitoring technology that is currently being embedded in water and agricultural ministries in Jordan, Lebanon, and Morocco will now be implemented in Tunisia. The satellite-based enhanced composite drought index (eCDI) supports effective drought management by enabling authorities to identify, early on, the presence and evolution of drought.

Empowering people to adapt on the frontlines of climate change
A new platform will unite climate models, impact predictions, random control trial evaluations, and humanitarian services to bring cutting-edge tools to Bangladeshi communities.

Technical Guidance on Comprehensive Risk Assessment and Planning in the Context of Climate Change
The Technical Guidance on Comprehensive Risk Assessment and Planning in the Context of Climate Change provides orientation on how risks in the context of climate change can be comprehensively and systemically addressed through risk assessment. Decision-making, planning, and integrating disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) perspectives and approaches while simultaneously linking to other goals and targets (e.g. the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)) are also discussed.

Global Risk Assessment Report 2022 (GAR2022)
GAR2022 explores how, around the world, structures are evolving to better address systemic risk. The report shows how governance systems can evolve to reflect the interconnected value of people, the planet and prosperity.

Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2022
The study of flood risk perception factors can be considered by using different paradigms. In an attempt to understand risk perception, two basic paradigms can be distinguished: rationalist and constructivist. This review paper aims to assess the importance of the rationalist and constructivist approaches in research on flood risk perception and flood risk management more broadly.

The United Nations World Water Development Report 2022: groundwater: making the invisible visible
This brief explores key improvements in data delivered by SHEAR projects. The SHEAR programme (Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience) carried out innovative research, in some of the most hazard-prone parts of the world, to better understand and forecast disasters, and minimize the risk they pose to vulnerable communities.

Compound risk analysis of natural hazards and infectious disease outbreaks
This study explores the potential impacts of compounding risk between natural hazards and infectious disease outbreaks such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) region. Compound risk occurs when two or more shock events overlap, inducing additional pressure on social and physical vulnerabilities. As part of the study, scenarios of a natural hazard occurring during an outbreak are created for each CAREC country.

The Third Multi-Hazard Early Warning Conference – 23-24 May
As we approach the mid-point of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, MHEWC-III provides a unique opportunity to review key accomplishments, and share skills, experience, and expertise within an active network of early warning practitioners.

Seventh Session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (GP2022)- 23 to 28 May
The Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction is the main global forum to assess and discuss progress on the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. The seventh session of the Global Platform (GP2022) will be organized by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) from 23 to 28 May 2022, in Bali, Indonesia, hosted by the Government of Indonesia. The event will be co-chaired by the Government of Indonesia and UNDRR.

Geo Virtual Symposium – Global action for local impact – 2-5^th May
With the theme ‘Global Action for Local Impact’, the GEO Virtual Symposium 2022 will explore how the portfolio of GEO products and services can provide insights and evidence for policy development and decision making, which is expected to lead to local impact over time. The symposium will foster dialogue among local stakeholders, GEO Work Programme (GWP) activities and other partners to discuss transversal environmental and societal issues, and identify potential integrative EO-based solutions in selected regions.

Call for paper Special Issue “Post-disaster Recovery and Climate Change Adaptation – an Asia-Pacific Perspective”
This Special Issue aims to present a platform for the exchange of the latest research and practices in post-disaster recovery and climate change adaptation in the Asia-Pacific region. Themes of particular interest include reasons for current inadequacies and context-specific challenges contributing to failed recovery and adaptation in the region, lessons learnt from past disaster experiences, innovative post-disaster reconstruction and recovery practices, and sustainable and practical solutions for adapting to climate change that is applicable to the Asia-Pacific region. We are seeking articles duly addressing environmental, cultural, economic and social aspects of post-disaster recovery and climate change adaptation within the scope of Sustainability.

Floods and other secondary perils: opportunity or threat for the industry?
18 May 2022
The Swiss Re Institute’s annual Natural Catastrophe sigma has become the benchmark in documenting the human and financial impact of disasters. The report compares these losses to prior years and historical averages to put the year in perspective. This hybrid event will look at the main natural catastrophe loss drivers for 2021 and how the year stacks up against others. We’ll take a deeper dive into flood risk and what the insurance industry can do to help build societal resilience in the face of increasing secondary perils.

The World Reconstruction Conference- 23-24 May 2022
The World Reconstruction Conference is a global forum that provides a platform to collect, assess, and share disaster reconstruction and recovery experiences and take forward the policy dialogue for effective international disaster recovery and reconstruction framework.

Climate change: IPCC report warns of ‘irreversible’ impacts of global warming
Many of the impacts of global warming are now simply “irreversible” according to the UN’s latest assessment. But the authors of a new report say that there is still a brief window of time to avoid the very worst. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that humans and nature are being pushed beyond their abilities to adapt.

Strengthening emergency communications for complex, cascading and compounding events – lessons learned from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption and tsunami in Tonga
While research communities are trying to better understand complex, compounding and cascading disasters, 2022 has just provided a ‘textbook’ example in Tonga. Tropical Cyclone Cody, the COVID-19 pandemic threat, and the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano – followed by a tsunami and more than 70 earthquakes (magnitudes 4.4-5.0) between 14 January and 04 February 2022 – devastated the emergency management system in Tonga.

CREWS commits additional funding to strengthen Early Warning Systems in the Caribbean
Different and multiple hazards, such as severe weather conditions inland and at sea, droughts, hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes, pose a serious threat to the Caribbean –  one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world. The development of Early Warning Systems has been identified by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and the Paris Agreement as a key pathway to prevent disasters and reduce the negative impacts of multiple hazards.

Limiting the damage: UN helps policymakers tackle climate change
As extreme weather events become commonplace, threatening communities and economies across the world, the UN is helping policymakers and leaders by projecting the impact of future climate hazards, and recommending the best, most cost-effective ways to adapt.

INFORM Risk Management Tool
INFORM is the first global, objective and transparent tool for understanding the risk of humanitarian crises. When all those involved in crisis prevention, preparedness and response use a shared risk assessment, they can work more effectively. That is why INFORM is open-source. INFORM has been developed in response to recommendations by numerous organisations to improve the common evidence basis for risk analysis, as well as the actual demands of INFORM partner organisations.

Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. It also reviews vulnerabilities and the capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change. To read the summaries or the full report click the link.

Understanding hazards: Probabilistic cyclone modelling for disaster risk to the Eastern Coast in Bangladesh
Cyclones and associated wind and water hazards result in the most significant fatalities. In addition, coastal inundations due to cyclonic storm surges are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people in low-lying, highly populated coastal areas. This paper develops a synthetic cyclone modelling (Category 4) to understand the probable maximum impacts of a tropical cyclone and its cascading and compounding hazards in the Cox’s Bazar area in Bangladesh.

Scoping paper – Strategic crisis management in the EU – June 2021
This scoping paper sets out the key recommendations by the European Commission’s Group of Chief Scientific Advisors on how to enhance crisis preparedness, more integrated and timely response capacity, and resilient recovery for the EU are expected within the second quarter of this year.

European Environmental Agency Europe’s changing climate hazards – an index-based interactive EEA report
Climate change is happening, and we need to get ready for more intense heatwaves, floods and storms, wildfires and water scarcity. Different climate-related hazards affect regions, sectors of the economy and members of society in different ways. Decision-makers need the best data and information to help them understand the imperatives and make the necessary preparations. “Europe’s changing climate hazards – an interactive index-based EEA report”, brings it all together with an overview of past and projected changes in Europe’s most important climate hazards.

A Deep-Learning Method for the Prediction of Socio-Economic Indicators from Street-View Imagery Using a Case Study from Brazil
Socioeconomic indicators are essential to help design and monitor the impact of public policies on society. Over recent years other ways of collecting data and producing indicators have been explored, in particular using the new surveillance capabilities that remote observations can provide. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the assessment of socioeconomic indicators using street-view imagery, through a case study conducted in a region of Brazil, the Vale do Ribeira, one of the poorest semi-rural regions in Brazil.

Beyond Barriers: Solomon Islands Case Study
This case study explores the Solomon Islands’ progress in the integration of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA), identifying key themes and opportunities for stakeholders to advance approaches that reduce risk and enhance resilience in communities

A crowdsourced global data set for validating built-up surface layers
Several global high-resolution built-up surface products have emerged over the last five years, taking full advantage of open sources of satellite data such as Landsat and Sentinel. However, these data sets require validation that is independent of the producers of these products. To fill this gap, we designed a validation sample set of 50 K locations using a stratified sampling approach independent of any existing global built-up surface products.

Domino Effect: Cascading disasters and lessons from the Tonga eruption and tsunami
Tonkin + Taylor in partnership with Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR), Committee on Data (CODATA) of the International Science Council (ISC) brings together experts to share: A forensic assessment of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption and tsunami in Tonga, A cascading and compounding hazard assessment, Volcanic eruption and tsunami scenarios, Lessons learned and ways forward. Follow the link to sign up for this webinar.

28 Feb – 11 March -1st WWRP/SERA Weather and Society Conference 2022 (Online)
Extreme hydrometeorological events are affecting societies, economies and environments as never before in human history. Governments, science agencies, the humanitarian sector, emergency managers and decision-makers face an unprecedented challenge to reduce the risks to citizens and society. The Societal and Economics Research Application (SERA) Working Group of the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) invites the weather community to actively participate in the first Weather and Society Conference organised by this Programme.

Global Sustainability – Sustainable Education in the Digital Age
Prof. Stephen Yang will address that in the digital age when developing technology, we also need to reflect on the impact of ethics and social changes on education. Prof. Hiroaki Ogata will address that the Japanese government expects to launch 15 “International Leading Research Projects” in 2023, each with a total funding cap of 500 million yen over seven years, to support international joint research. Prof. Owen Lu will address that by applying ESG analytics technology to essay grading. Including how to use natural language processing technology to analyze corporate sustainability reports and media news?

Launch of Women’s Leadership in Disaster Risk Reduction
Women, girls, boys, men, and people of diverse gender identities have distinct vulnerabilities in each context that shape the way that they experience and recover from disaster impacts. Effective disaster risk reduction requires meaningful and diverse participation, engagement, and leadership, through an inclusive and accessible, all-of-society approach.

Flood forecasting for anticipatory action: applying flood models in humanitarian contexts
Flood forecasts can provide critical information to help people get ahead of rising water levels before a crisis unfolds. The speakers will explore examples of flood models, the spatial and temporal scale at which these models can provide risk information, how probabilistic models are interpreted, the uncertainties of these models, and where floods models have been used to inform anticipatory action.

Current approaches and GIS methods to support anticipatory humanitarian action
Geospatial data, GIS and remote sensing are of increasing importance in the humanitarian context and are currently experiencing increased use in the field of anticipatory humanitarian action. In this advanced course, you have the opportunity to explore the application areas of geodata in humanitarian contexts.

Why the Tonga tsunami arrived much earlier and much larger than expected
The tsunami recorded at distant locations from the Tonga volcanic explosion arrived much earlier and was much larger than expected from an earthquake-generated tsunami. This event caused great difficulty in issuing timely and accurate tsunami warnings for the following three reasons described in the article.

Volunteered rapid disaster monitoring and mapping (VoRDM)
The Kingdom of Tonga and its people are reeling from the violent January 15 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano and the ensuing tsunami. CODATA TG FAIR Data for DRR, China GEO Aerospace Information Research Institute in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (AIR) and Tonkin + Taylors  Disaster Risk Resilience team is working hard to map the devastation accurately and smoothly the way for more efficient humanitarian efforts and recovery.

Long-term planning crucial to Tonga’s recovery
As recovery efforts began in Tonga, after the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano eruption and the tsunami that followed, the first priority will be to provide immediate relief to communities to save lives and respond to urgent needs. However, successful recovery must also incorporate long-term strategies of building back better and establishing resilience, mitigation, risk reduction and preparedness initiatives.

2021 floods: UN researchers aim to better prepare for climate risks
In July 2021, several European countries, including Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, were affected by catastrophic floods, causing deaths and widespread damage. According to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), such extreme weather events are expected to increase frequency and severity in the coming decades.

A framework for global science in support of risk-informed sustainable development and planetary health
This document takes stock of recent developments in disaster risk science. It provides a compelling set of directions for research and scientific collaboration for a more holistic and collaborative approach to understanding and managing risks. It challenges silos in science and in society and the notion that social, ecological, economic and technological systems can be understood in isolation from one another and advocates for an increased focus on people.

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges
Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is a low-risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure increase in coastal areas.

UK climate change risk assessment 2022
As required by the Climate Change Act 2008, the UK government has undertaken the third five-year assessment of the risks of climate change in the UK. The risk assessment considers sixty-one UK-wide climate risks and opportunities cutting across multiple sectors of the economy. It prioritises eight risk areas for action, discussed in the document.

Creating resilient futures: Integrating disaster risk reduction, sustainable development goals and climate change adaptation agendas
This book examines a coherence building opportunity between Climate Change Adaptation, the Sustainable Development Goals and Disaster Risk Reduction agendas. Considers opportunities to address global challenges in the context of developing resilience as an integrated development continuum instead of through independent and siloed agendas.

City Resilience Program: Supporting cities in building resilience
This Making Cities Resilient 2030 (MCR2030) webinar session aims to provide in-depth information to help cities, local authorities, and their partners better understand what the City Resilience Program is and how to access its support. It will include information on the type of support provided, the eligibility criteria and the relevant application process.

CREWS workshop on people-centred early warning systems operational procedures
CREWS invite participants to register interest in participating in a 2-hour workshop (in French and English) to discuss CREWS People-Centered Early Warning Systems (EWS) Operational Procedures. The workshop is an opportunity for people with experience of people-centred EWS and design, implementation and monitoring of CREWS projects to share experiences and contribute to finalising.

Pre-Conference Workshops – African kick-off conference for the UN decade of ocean science for sustainable development
The Conference will provide a forum to take stock of the state of ocean science and technology in the region, to deliberate on how ocean science in Africa should be supported and focused on achieving the societal outcomes required by the Decade, and also seek the interest and commitment of the ocean science community to engage in a number of research directions that are essential for sustainable ocean management.

SHEAR Common Ground: Science for humanitarian emergencies and resilience
It is our great pleasure to invite you to join us on February 11th at our SHEAR finale event, in which we will be celebrating our achievements, finding common ground and charting the way forward. We are excited to share and discuss pressing humanitarian-science questions and the outcomes of the SHEAR programme through a high-energy and interactive virtual event.

Artificial intelligence for natural disaster management
This Webinar will explore the main barriers to adopting these disruptive technologies in disaster management and examine the integrated approaches related to machine learning, big data analytics, and AI for supporting the detection, forecasting, and communication of natural hazards disasters.  In this context, the Webinar will provide an overview of how AI can be leveraged to enhance modelling across spatiotemporal scales and facilitate effective communication in the event of a natural disaster.