El Niño likely to return: the case for early action
Climate models point to a likely return of El Niño by mid-2026. Its strength remains uncertain, but waiting for certainty can increase exposure to avoidable losses. History tells the risks; drought, agricultural collapse, and disease outbreaks, hitting poor and food insecure regions the hardest. Unfortunately, this return arrives with governments and households less resilient than before, and climate change pushing risks further. The priorities should be; turning climate forecasts into actionable ground-level decisions, early financing options, and strengthened coordination across sectors. The window for preparation and long term resilience opportunities is open.
How controlled burns can help save taxpayers billions
Indigenous nations have been clearing underbrush and trees or employing prescribed burns for centuries. A study published in Science confirms what land managers have long argued; preventing wildfires is cheaper than fighting them. Every dollar spent on clearing underbrush and trees, and prescribed burns avoided $3.73 in damage. Yet US federal policy has moved recently in the opposite direction, with suppression prioritised over prevention and one million fewer forest acres with prevention measures adopted in 2025 than 2024. Wildfire prevention can also bring benefits for ecology and recreation, however, not everyone is in support of the tactic.
Tulane researchers say Louisiana could lead global climate adaptation efforts
Louisiana is losing land faster than almost anywhere on Earth. New research published in Nature Sustainability has identified an ancient shoreline roughly 30 miles north of New Orleans, which formed 125,000 years ago when temperatures were just 0.5-1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. With global temperatures now approaching that 1.5°C threshold, a similar retreat may already be locked in. The authors are clear in that this does not have to be an inevitable disaster. An early start with planned, managed relocation, can transform retreat into renewal. Sweden’s city of Kiruna, currently relocating 6,000 residents due to mining activity, proves it can be done. The window to plan is open, but it will not stay open for long.
From forecasts to futures: how Ugandan communities are turning early warnings into everyday action
In Uganda’s flood-prone Kamuli and drought-affected Pakwach districts, the Water at the Heart of Climate Action (WHCA) programme is transforming how communities prepare for climate hazards. Launched in 2024, WHCA unites government agencies, the Uganda Red Cross Society, and humanitarian partners to build community-rooted early warning systems. Recognising that “people know their risks better than any map,” the programme began by listening, engaging over 3,000 participants to shape its roadmap. At the heart of the programme is training the community and trusted groups, because “when people hear advice from their church or local radio, they act faster”. Ultimately, WHCA aims to turn early warning into an everyday culture of preparedness, leading the way in learning to live with climate hazards.
Cities are rehearsing for deadly heat. Will it help when disaster comes?
In a tunnel beneath Paris, kept at a cool 18°C, schoolchildren acted to simulate the chaos of a 50°C heatwave. They faked food poisoning from spoiled refrigerated goods and carbon monoxide leaks from emergency generators. Above ground, firefighters and city officials worked through the cascading failures such heat would trigger across power, transport and health systems. The drill led to 50 recommendations now embedded in Paris’ Climate Action Plan, with a few other cities following suite. The lessons learnt being that a heat action plan on paper is not the same as knowing how to execute it under pressure, and residents (not just officials) must be prepared.
When Bangladesh was gripped by a nationwide student uprising in July 2024, millions were exposed to prolonged unrest and traumatic events. This open-access, population-based study is among the first to quantify the psychological impact, using the validated PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 to assess probable PTSD among Bangladeshis aged 15 and over within three months of the uprising. The study highlights the value of applying Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) principles to post-crisis mental health data and provides a rigorous, reproducible framework for studying the mental health impacts of disasters. Findings reveal high probable PTSD rates following large-scale confrontations, underscoring the need for culturally appropriate interventions and continued monitoring. As political unrest, climate shocks, and displacement increasingly overlap worldwide, interoperable mental health data is becoming essential to effective recovery and disaster risk reduction.
Open Science, Health Data and Epistemic Harms: A Multidisciplinary Reflection
Open Science (OS) promises to democratise knowledge and reduce inequalities, but does it deliver? This interdisciplinary essay from researchers at the University of Warwick argues that, particularly in health data, OS can amplify structural vulnerabilities for already marginalised communities. Drawing on a September 2025 workshop, the authors bring perspectives from law, epidemiology, disability studies and data justice to critically examine OS’s “promise and paradox.” They highlight how OS infrastructures can perpetuate Eurocentric knowledge norms, corporate capture and data colonialism. The authors call for OS to move beyond techno-optimism and instead embrace relational data governance, CARE principles, Indigenous data sovereignty, accessibility as a core principle, and stronger accountability frameworks, ensuring openness genuinely serves collective benefit rather than reinforcing existing power structures.
Predicting large earthquakes remains a major scientific challenge due to the complexity and variability of fault systems and their preparatory processes. This study applies an unsupervised machine learning framework to seismicity catalogues to identify patterns that may signal the lead‑up to large earthquakes. For earthquakes with a clear preparatory phase, certain clusters of smaller earthquakes became increasingly localized and interconnected in the lead-up to the main event. These “critical” patterns reflected higher levels of strain release and earthquake interaction compared to background seismicity. Importantly, the method did not detect the same signals before earthquakes with no clear preparatory phase, suggesting it may help distinguish when meaningful precursory activity is occurring. The researchers say the approach shows promise for improving operational earthquake forecasting, while also highlighting that not all earthquakes exhibit detectable warning patterns beforehand.
Integrating land use planning with preparedness actors such as fire and rescue services and crisis management is becoming increasingly important in disaster risk management. Evolving risks linked to climate change, urban densification, and complex hazard interactions require both preventive and resilience‑based approaches. Four key themes were identified shaping collaboration: institutional structures and data sharing, alignment of priorities and risk perceptions, resource availability and capacity, and role clarity and mutual understanding. Evidence shows that fragmentation, unclear responsibilities, limited information exchange, and competing priorities constrain effective coordination across these actors. As responsibilities for prevention and response remain organised across separate systems, insufficient integration can weaken feedback between planning and operational practice, limiting the ability to reduce risks and adapt to emerging threats over time.
Disasters are increasingly shaped by the conditions of the Anthropocene, where human-driven environmental change is producing more frequent, interconnected, and unpredictable events. The analysis argues that disasters can no longer be understood as discrete, natural occurrences, but as chronic, systemic processes arising from complex interactions between social and ecological systems. In this context, traditional disaster management approaches—based on control, prediction, and recovery—are increasingly limited by uncertainty and the breakdown of stable cause‑effect relationships. Instead, the study highlights a shift toward “transformative resilience,” where disasters are understood as potential catalysts for systemic change. This approach emphasises reconfiguring socio‑ecological systems, addressing structural drivers of vulnerability, and enabling cities to reorganise and evolve in response to disruption, rather than returning to pre‑disaster conditions.
Emergency Preparedness, Disaster Displacement and Climate Migration
Climate‑related hazards are reshaping patterns of human mobility, with preparedness emerging as a key factor determining whether displacement is safe, planned, or chaotic. The analysis shows that linking risk assessment, early warning systems, and pre‑arranged financing enables earlier and more effective action, reducing losses and distress migration. Inclusive risk communication and evacuation planning are critical to ensuring that vulnerable populations can move safely or access protection in place. The duration and impacts of displacement are strongly influenced by the pace of recovery, including housing reconstruction and access to social protection. Over the longer term, combining adaptation measures that support habitability with safe, voluntary migration pathways is identified as essential to strengthening resilience under increasing climate pressures.
16th UCL Risk & Disaster Reduction annual conference | UCL Risk & Disaster Reduction
How do cities confront emerging risks and build more resilient futures? The 16th UCL Risk and Disaster Reduction Annual Conference brings together researchers, practitioners, and policymakers across disaster risk — from multi-hazard modelling to AI ethics in crisis management. The programme features a keynote from UNDRR’s Loretta Girardet, and sessions span from engineering to social science, as well as an explorative hackathon reimagining future cities.
Date & location: 24 June 2026 | UCL, London, United Kingdom
2nd Bonn Risk Finance Dialogue
Vulnerable communities remain dangerously under protected as climate risks intensify and financing gaps widen. The 2nd Bonn Risk Finance Dialogue will bring together practitioners, researchers, and policymakers to tackle this challenge head-on. Structured around three themes; scaling up policy and financing frameworks, scaling out financial protection solutions, and scaling deep through stronger delivery systems, the Dialogue aims to advance climate and disaster risk finance and insurance (CDRFI) for those who need it most. The event organisers welcome contributions to the Dialogue.
Date & location: 17-18 June 2026 | Haus der Evangelischen Kirche (EViB), Bonn, Germany
Integrating Risk Reduction and Risk Finance: From Strategy to Implementation
National financing for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) remains insufficient, fragmented, and too disconnected from implementation processes. Yet countries are increasingly seeking practical tools to change that. A workshop will be held to explore emerging solutions, including the Climate Insurance and Resilience Programme (CIRP) and the G20 Compendium on Risk Transfer Instruments, and assess their real-world applicability. The workshop will strengthen national DRR financing strategies, advance anticipatory financing, and gather country feedback to shape joint technical guidance. This workshop is a complementary event to the 2nd Bonn Risk Finance Dialogue event.
Date & location: 17 June 2026 | Haus der Evangelischen Kirche (EViB), Bonn, Germany
CESSDA “Future-Ready Social Science: Data, Policy, and Impact” (50th Anniversary)
As digital transformation, open science, and AI reshape research, the need for trustworthy, interoperable, and policy-relevant social science data has never been greater. To mark its 50th anniversary, CESSDA, the Consortium of European Social Science Data Archives, convenes researchers, data experts, policy actors, and funding partners from across Europe and beyond to reflect on five decades of collaboration and chart a shared vision for the future. Anchored in CESSDA’s strategic pillars of Data, People, and Landscape, the conference creates space for bold questions and stronger synergies, advancing a European Research Area where data is as open as possible and as closed as necessary.
Date & location: 15–18 June 2026 | Bergen, Norway
CODATA-RDA School of Research Data Science
Contemporary research cannot be done effectively without strong data skills, yet access to quality training remains unequal. The CODATA-RDA School of Research Data Science offers early-career researchers and professionals from Africa and South America a self-paced, online curriculum covering ten themes in research data science, from technical skills to responsible research practices. Delivered through video lectures, exercises, and live question-and-answer sessions, the school equips participants with the foundational skills needed to work with data effectively in 21st-century research. Open to master’s students, postdoctoral researchers, and professionals, this initiative reflects CODATA’s commitment to building an inclusive, globally connected research data community.
Date & location: 1 June – 17 July 2026 | Online (short course)
